To negate the impact of human activity on the environment, electric cars would need to reach 60% of the global market share by 2030, according to a new report of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
This is to achieve net zero carbon emissions, meaning that emissions would not be fully eliminated, but any remaining emissions could be offset by other measures. While the global vehicle fleet is not fully electric by 2050, there is no clear path to achieving that goal, the report says.
Achieving the necessary levels of electric vehicle market share will require more aggressive policies than has been discussed so far, he argues.
Analysts looked at two scenarios: the declared policies scenario and the sustainable development scenario. As the name suggests, the declared policies scenario is based on current policies. The sustainable development scenario takes into account sharper emission reductions in line with the objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement.
Global EV sales forecast by 2030 (according to IEA report)
The sustainable development scenario assumes that all EV goals are met, even if current policies are not considered sufficient to stimulate the necessary adoption rates. It also encompasses other factors – such as the increase in public transport – that reduce dependence on cars.
With the declared more conservative policy scenario, the report predicts that electric vehicles will only account for 15% of new car sales in the United States by 2030, but that could reach 50% with the more aggressive sustainability scenario.
This scenario also calls for a substantial increase in charging infrastructure, although home charging is the main use case.
The report also predicts a large increase in battery manufacturing capacity with either scenario. Global lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity in 2020 was around 300 gigawatt hours per year, while actual output was 160 GWh, the report said. The capacity would reach 1.6 terawatt-hour in the declared policies scenario and 3.2 TWh in the sustainable development scenario.
Estimated share of EV in the United States by 2030 (based on IEA report)
The latter capacity is sufficient to enable the goals of adopting the sustainable development scenario, but to achieve this, all battery factories would have to operate at full capacity, the report said, noting that they currently have an average capacity of 50 percent. . According to a recent report sponsored by Swiss technology company ABB, substantial increases in capacity could be achieved, either by using the company’s robots to improve efficiency, naturally, or by adding more factories.
Growth forecasts for EV sales among automakers vary widely. Toyota, for example, is taking the conservative route seeing that 85% of its American vehicles will still have tailpipes by 2030.
Adopting 60% of electric vehicle sales by 2030 might be a good target for federal policymakers, as it would realign with the goals set by the Obama administration and might help avoid a situation in which the standards of California shows would not be in sync with national standards.
Or maybe policymakers will be swayed by the potential cost savings American drivers could achieve by switching to electric vehicles. Another recent study found that all new U.S. vehicles could be made electric by 2035, saving households $ 1,000 a year for the next 30 years.